Impact Of Non-Oil Exports On Economic Growth And Unemployment In Nigeria

Abstract

This research investigated the impact of specific categories of non-oil exports, namely agricultural exports, commercial service exports, and manufacturing exports, on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria between 1991 and 2022. The study used various statistical methods to analyze annual time series data, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the Johansen Co-integration Test, and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression method. The findings revealed that manufacturing exports positively influenced the economy, with a 1-unit increase in the manufacturing sector leading to a 2.32-unit rise in economic growth. Conversely, agricultural and commercial service exports hindered economic growth, causing a decline of 1.13 and 2.61 units, respectively, for every 1-unit increase in these sectors. Moreover, a 1-unit increase in manufacturing exports reduced unemployment by 0.11 units, whereas a similar increase in Agricultural Export and Commercial Service Exports raised the unemployment rate by 0.04 and 0.77 units, respectively. Based on these results, the study recommended that the government should actively pursue the implementation of economic programs focused on developing the non-oil sector. Additionally, effective management of exchange rates and inflation policies by monetary authorities is crucial, as a favourable exchange rate would enhance the competitiveness of Nigeria's export products in the international market.